2022 will be looked back on as a pivotal year for markets. After years of below-trend economic growth that led to ultralow interest rates, the inflation we saw in late 2021 was supercharged in 2022 reflecting the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on food and energy prices, continued lockdowns in China, and a tight labor market globally. Headline inflation peaked in June 2022 at +9.1% and has since slowed to 6.5%. The Federal Reserve’s goal is to bring core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) down to 2%, but this measure has been sticking in the 4.5-5% range, as wages have increased in a tight labor market.
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